About

BracketHedge is a one-person project: a college-basketball model built from scratch, and the bracket tools we wished existed.

The model

Every team gets one rating: how many points better or worse than an average Division I team it is, adjusted for who it played and where. It comes from the margin of every regular-season game, solved all at once, so beating a good team counts for more than beating a bad one. Two ratings turn into a win probability with a curve fitted on late-season games.

It uses nothing from anyone else: no KenPom, no betting lines, no seeds. We've tested adding those; over the years they don't reliably help, and we'd rather ship something we fully understand.

What it can't do

Nobody's model sees injuries the week of the tournament, and in a single game anything happens. The honest record, including the years we lose to the big public systems, is on the Simulations page.

Get in touch

Ideas, bugs, questions, a feature you want: ideas@brackethedge.com. We read everything.